Sales plan vs actual: how to calculate plan completion
Sales plan vs. actual shows how the company is progressing toward its planned sales volume targets in money and/or units. It is one of the most practical indicators for operational management: every day you can see whether the period's targets will be met on time and exactly where risks arise.
What the metric measures
Three values are compared: the plan for the period (month/quarter/week), actual sales to date, and the variance. In addition, the run rate and the forecast to the end of the period are used. As a result, a manager sees not only the total but also the pace, which allows timely corrective action.
Calculation
- % achieved = Actual / Plan × 100
- Variance, ₴ = Actual − Plan
- Variance, % = (Actual − Plan) / Plan × 100
- Run rate = Actual to date / number of days elapsed
- Forecast = Actual to date + expected sales until the end of the period (taking seasonality and planned activities into account)
It is important to compare on the same basis: excluding VAT, with or without returns — according to the adopted standard. The plan must be fixed before the period starts and must not be changed retroactively.
Calculation example
The monthly plan is 1,000,000, and by day 20 of 30 the actual is 600,000. Plan to date = 1,000,000 × 20 / 30 = 666,667, completion to date = 600,000 / 666,667 × 100 = 90%. The month-end forecast = 600,000 / 20 × 30 = 900,000 — without changes the plan will be missed by 100,000.
Data sources
Plan — the sales budget or operating plan (ERP, planning spreadsheets, CRM). Actual — ERP/1C, CRM, billing, POS systems, payment providers. For transparency, define a single "source of truth" and rules for accounting for discounts, bonuses, and returns.
How to interpret
- Ahead of plan. Make sure this is not a one-off effect (a large deal, shifted shipments). Reinforce the success through the channels with the best contribution.
- Behind plan. Assess what exactly is "sagging": number of deals, conversion, average order value, or product mix. Review promotions, channel priorities, and the shipment schedule.
- Calendar unevenness. Take working days/weekends, holidays, and peak season into account — it is useful to look at cumulative plan and actual curves.
- Revenue quality. Compare plan vs. actual not only in ₴ but also in units and gross margin: overachievement driven by deep discounts can hurt profitability.
Useful breakdowns
- Products / categories / SKU
- Sales channels: online, offline, distribution, marketplaces
- Regions, points of sale, teams, and managers
- New vs. repeat customers
- Price ranges, promotions, and discounts
Dashboard visualizations
- Cumulative curves of plan and actual by day of the period (shows falling behind/getting ahead over time)
- Plan vs. actual by channel/category as bars with contribution drill-down
- % achieved indicator with "minimum — normal — target" thresholds
- Forecast to the end of the period next to the plan (line or label)
- Waterfall of changes against plan: volume, price/order value, mix, returns
How to set targets
Targets are based on history, seasonality, the marketing calendar, and operational capacity (production, warehouse, logistics). For departments and managers, set both monetary and quantity targets, as well as control thresholds (for example, 95% — attention zone, 100% — target, 105%+ — excellent).
Common mistakes
- Substituting orders for actual sales or ignoring returns
- Changing the plan mid-period without version control
- Comparing unequal periods without calendar adjustment
- Mixing currencies/VAT rates, inconsistent product and channel reference data
- No link to the marketing plan and warehouse capacity
Questions for discussion
- What 2–3 factors caused this week's deviation from plan?
- What is the contribution of channels and categories to achievement? Where are the reserves for quick growth?
- Does promotional activity match the target product mix?
- What actions will raise the run rate by 5–10% already this period?